As you probably have already heard, the tiebreak scenario in case there is a tie for the NFL's worst record is Strength of Schedule. With Indy winning on Sunday, the race for the #1 pick has gotten more interesting. Obviously, if the Colts were to win-out and finish 3-13, and either St. Louis or Minnesota (or both) ended up at 2-14, they would move ahead in the NFL Draft pecking order. But, what if there is a tie? Have the Colts already clinched based on their weak schedule? If I played out the worst-case scenario for the Colts vs. the best-case scenarios for either the Vikings or Rams, how would it shake out? I crunched the numbers, and here is what I came up with:
(Apologize for the poor formatting)
Indianapolis
Opponent (Rec.) - Remaining - Final Rec.
Houston (10-4) - Beat IND, TEN - 11-5, 11-5
Cleveland (4-10) - Lose BAL, PIT - 4-12
Pittsburgh (10-4) - Lose STL, Beat CLE - 11-5
Tampa Bay (4-10) - Lose CAR, ATL - 4-12
Kansas City (6-8) - Beat OAK, DEN - 8-8
Cincinnati (8-6) - Beat ARI, Lose BAL - 9-7
New Orleans (11-3) - Beat ATL, CAR - 13-3
Tennessee (7-7) - Beat JAX, Lose HOU - 8-8, 8-8
Atlanta (9-5) - Lose NO, Beat TB - 10-6
Jacksonville (4-10) - Lose TEN, IND - 4-12, 4-12
Carolina (5-9) - Beat TB, Lose NO - 6-10
New England (11-3) - Beat MIA, BUF - 13-3
Baltimore (10-4) - Beat CLE, CIN - 12-4
Colts’ opponents record: 136-120
Minnesota
Opponent (Rec.) - Remaining - Final Rec.
San Diego (7-7) - Beat DET, OAK - 9-7
Tampa Bay (4-10) - Lose CAR, ATL - 4-12
Detroit (9-5) - Lose DET, GB - 9-7, 9-7
Kansas City (6-8) - Beat OAK, DEN - 8-8
Arizona (7-7) - Lose CIN, SEA - 7-9
Chicago (7-7) - Lose GB, Beat MIN - 8-8, 8-8
Green Bay (13-1) - Beat CHI, DET - 15-1, 15-1
Carolina (5-9) - Beat TB, Lose NO - 6-10
Oakland (7-7) - Beat KC, Lose SD - 8-8
Atlanta (9-5) - Lose NO, Beat TB - 10-6
Denver (8-6) - Lose BUF, Beat KC - 9-7
New Orleans (11-3) - Beat ATL, CAR - 13-3
Washington (5-9) - Beat MIN, Lose PHI - 6-10
Vikings’ opponents record: 144-112
Colts’ worst-case scenario vs. Rams best-case scenario
Indianapolis
Opponent (Rec.) - Result - Final Rec.
Houston (10-4) - Beat IND, TEN - 11-5, 11-5
Cleveland (4-10) - Lose BAL, PIT - 4-12
Pittsburgh (10-4) - Lose STL, Beat CLE - 11-5
Tampa Bay (4-10) - Lose CAR, ATL - 4-12
Kansas City (6-8) - Beat OAK, DEN - 8-8
Cincinnati (8-6) - Beat ARI, Lose BAL - 9-7
New Orleans (11-3) - Beat ATL, CAR - 13-3
Tennessee (7-7) - Beat JAX, Lose HOU - 8-8, 8-8
Atlanta (9-5) - Lose NO, Beat TB - 10-6
Jacksonville (4-10) - Lose TEN, IND - 4-12, 4-12
Carolina (5-9) - Beat TB, Lose NO - 6-10
New England (11-3) - Beat MIA, BUF - 13-3
Baltimore (10-4) - Beat CLE, CIN - 12-4
Colts’ opponents record: 136-120
St. Louis
Opponent (Rec.) - Remaining - Final Rec.
Philadelphia (6-8) - Lose DAL, Beat WAS - 7-9
NY Giants (7-7) - Lose NYJ, Beat DAL - 8-8
Baltimore (10-4) - Beat CLE, CIN - 12-4
Washington (5-9) - Lose MIN, PHI - 5-11
Green Bay (13-1) - Lose CHI, DET - 13-3
Dallas (8-6) - Beat PHI, Lose NYG - 9-7
New Orleans (11-3) - Beat ATL, CAR- 13-3
Arizona (7-7) - Lose CIN, Beat SEA - 8-8, 8-8
Cleveland (4-10) - Lose BAL, PIT - 4-12
Seattle (7-7) - Lose SF, ARI - 7-9, 7-9
San Francisco (11-3) - Beat SEA, STL - 13-3, 13-3
Cincinnati (8-6) - Beat ARI, Lose BAL - 9-7
Pittsburgh (10-4) - Lose STL, Beat CLE - 11-5
Rams’ opponent record: 147-109
So, barring the unlikelihood of the Colts winning both of their remaining games, it appears that the #1 pick is pretty much in the bag.
